Russian Military Breakthrough
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US intelligence chief warns of a looming Russian military breakthrough Moscow says Ukraine has lost over 100k soldiers since January as Kiev says it lacks weapons and motivated soldiers
Russian forces are steadily advancing in the Ukraine conflict, the US Director of National Intelligence, Avril Haines, told senators on Thursday. She also accused China of providing Russia with dual-use components, which has “tilted the momentum on the battlefield in Moscow’s favor.”
Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines. © Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
During a hearing at the US Senate Armed Services Committee on Global Threats on Thursday, Haines said Russia “is making incremental progress on the battlefield with the potential for tactical breakthroughs along the front lines in areas such as Donetsk and Kharkiv.”
The intelligence official added that Moscow’s economic position and rearmament efforts have led Russian President Vladimir Putin to believe that “domestic and international trends are in his favor.”
“Putin has for months indicated a willingness to enter into talks with Ukraine and the United States about the future for Ukraine but without any indication that he is willing to make significant concessions,” Haines added.
Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu. © Sputnik / Vadim Savitskii
She further claimed that an intensifying campaign of Russian airstrikes is designed to break Kiev’s will and demonstrate there is no “plausible path to victory” for Ukraine.
This strategy is also disrupting Kiev’s military logistics and defense industry capabilities, Haines explained, adding that aerial bombardments are “likely to continue, and the war is unlikely to end any time soon.”
Deputy Head of Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Vadim Skibitsky. © Handout / Victor Pinchuk Foundation via AFP
The US intelligence chief told senators that President Putin continues to see NATO enlargement and Western support to Ukraine as proof that the US and its European allies “seek to restrict Russian power.” This perception supposedly translates into an ever-growing military budget for Moscow.
Last month, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu stated that Moscow’s forces had seized the initiative on the battlefield and had been making territorial gains in Donbass.
Around the same time, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov insisted that the recently approved $61 billion US aid package for Ukraine “won’t change the dynamics on the front line.”
Shoigu reiterated the claim, Friday , when he said Ukrainian military losses since the beginning of the year have surpassed 111,000 troops at a ministerial meeting.
Drone footage of an artillery strike on a Ukrainian field depot; several trucks loaded with ammunition are seen being obliterated in a large blast. Donetsk Peoples Republic. RuMOD
Russian forces “continue to break up” Ukrainian defensive positions along the entire front line, the senior official reported during a ministerial meeting. Russia’s territorial gains this year have amounted to 547 sq km, he added.
Shoigu accused the US and its allies of pressuring Kiev into disregarding the cost of continued fighting. As a result, Ukraine suffered 1,000 casualties daily throughout April, the minister claimed.
Kiev has ramped up its mobilization efforts due to high attrition, Shoigu added, claiming that Ukrainians unwilling to fight “are being forced to the front line” and certain death. The Russian defense chief accused the leadership in Kiev of sacrificing citizens for the sake of continued Western financial and military assistance.
In an interview with The Economist published on Thursday, Vadim Skibitsky, the deputy head of Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence agency, predicted that Russia would launch a major offensive by the end of May or the beginning of June, with Kiev still suffering from weapons shortages. He also acknowledged that the fall of Chasov Yar, a major Ukrainian stronghold in Donetsk Region, was only a matter of time.
A lack of willing draftees is also undermining Kiev’s war effort, including those recruited under draconian new rules, the report stated.
The Ukrainian military leadership announced the purported deadline in mid-April, and has recently boasted about depriving Moscow of its supposed wish.
Russia will eventually take Chasov Yar anyway, Skibitsky told The Economist. The general added that he does not see a way for Ukraine to win on the battlefield alone, describing the continuing hostilities as an attempt by both sides to gain a stronger position in future peace talks.
Skibitsky believes that no meaningful negotiations will happen before 2025. Moscow has repeatedly said that, unlike Kiev, it is willing to negotiate peace as long as “realities on the ground” are acknowledged.
Source X/RT/Reuters/Economist
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